The impact of authorities' media and rumor dissemination on the evolution of emergency

Rumor dissemination will induce emergencies. Authorities' information is an essential factor for avoiding rumor dissemination when emergencies occur. The credibility of authorities' media and audience rating of authorities' information greatly influence the evolution of emergencies which are induced by rumor dissemination. To explore the interplay mechanism among authorities' media, rumor dissemination and the evolution of emergency, we propose a new interplay model and perform stability analysis by the Routh stability criterion. We find a stability condition under which the deterioration of emergency can be effectively prevented. Recommendations for policy makers and consulting advice for related commissions are explored in the case study of the iodized sail shortage panic in China. Results show that applying media with high audience rating but low credibility will cause widespread panic and inspire a slew of ancillary rumors. Authorities should choose proper media to release the truth to public according to the seriousness of the situation and the rumor spreading rate. Pertinent countermeasures and appropriate tactics are also brought out for decision makers to alleviate intense feelings of panic. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.