Mapping the future in science-intensive industries: Lessons from the pharmaceutical industry

Companies operating in industries that are subject to fundamental changes caused by innovations in science or technology search for ways to anticipate future business and scientific or technological developments so that they can react to them in profitable ways. Using the example of the pharmaceutical industry, which is currently moving from chemically based medications to targeted treatments based on biology, we demonstrate a process for forecasting how the future will look a decade from now. Illustrating the process with a variety of studies already done on this industry, we provide a strategy for mapping the future as well as an analysis of the strengths and limitations of our planning approach. We argue that this approach is applicable to both science-based and technology-based industries.