Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

被引:250
作者
Wang, Huwen [1 ]
Wang, Zezhou [2 ,3 ]
Dong, Yinqiao [4 ]
Chang, Ruijie [1 ]
Xu, Chen [1 ]
Yu, Xiaoyue [1 ]
Zhang, Shuxian [1 ]
Tsamlag, Lhakpa [1 ]
Shang, Meili [5 ]
Huang, Jinyan [6 ]
Wang, Ying [1 ]
Xu, Gang [1 ]
Shen, Tian [1 ]
Zhang, Xinxin [7 ,8 ]
Cai, Yong [1 ]
机构
[1] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Sch Med, Shanghai 200025, Peoples R China
[2] Fudan Univ, Shanghai Canc Ctr, Dept Canc Prevent, Shanghai 200032, Peoples R China
[3] Fudan Univ, Shanghai Med Coll, Dept Oncol, Shanghai 200032, Peoples R China
[4] China Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth, Shenyang 110122, Peoples R China
[5] Sanlin Community Hlth Serv Ctr, Shanghai 200124, Peoples R China
[6] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Natl Res Ctr Translat Med Shanghai, Shanghai Inst Hematol, State Key Lab Med Genom,Rui Jin Hosp,Sch Med, Shanghai 200025, Peoples R China
[7] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Natl Res Ctr Translat Med Shanghai, Res Lab Clin Virol, Rui Jin Hosp,Sch Med, Shanghai 200025, Peoples R China
[8] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Med, Rui Jin Hosp North, Shanghai 200025, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
CONTROL STRATEGIES; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH; INFLUENZA; SARS;
D O I
10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0
中图分类号
Q2 [细胞生物学];
学科分类号
071009 ; 090102 ;
摘要
An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R-0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of R-t. In the first assumption, R-t was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with R-t = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, R-t was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (R-t = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (R-t = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce R-t to an ideal level and control the infection.
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页数:8
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