Decisions as dynamic equilibriums in erratic policy processes - Positive and negative feedback as drivers of non-linear policy dynamics

Policy processes are anything but static. In this paper an evolutionary framework derived from complexity theory is explored to explain how policy processes evolve in a non-linear way and how they result in a chain of subsequent policy decisions. Policy change is explained by tracing the way in which the various substituting elements of policy processes influence each other and cause, and are subject to, positive and negative feedback. Policy decisions form internally a temporal stable equilibrium between practical ambitions, normative points of view and factual claims, and externally a temporal equilibrium between policy processes that compete with each other for attention and legitimacy. This theoretical framework is illustrated by an in-depth case study on policy-making on the long-term development of the Westerschelde estuary running between Flanders and the Netherlands. The article concludes with a reflection on the added value of complexity theory for policy analysis.