The burden of mortality attributable to diabetes - Realistic estimates for the year 2000

OBJECTIVE- To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod 11), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death. RESULTS- The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS- These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.