Macroeconomic effects of efficiency policies for energy-intensive industries: The case of the UK Climate Change Agreements, 2000-2010

This paper reports a study modeling the UK Climate Change Agreements (CCAs) and related energy-efficiency policies for energy-intensive industrial sectors. Bottom-up estimates of the effects of these policies are introduced into the energy-demand equations of a top-down dynamic econometric model of the UK economy with fifty industrial sectors, MDM-E3. This allowed estimation of the effects of the reduced energy use for the outputs from the sectors, i.e. the reductions in unit costs of the energy-intensive industries, on the demand for their outputs (both in the UK and in the export markets). The model is solved as a counterfactual 2000-2005 and as a projection 2005-2010 in a series of scenarios to allow estimation of the effects of the policies on inflation and growth, as well as on overall energy demand and CO2 emissions. The system-wide final energy reductions is estimated to be 4.2 mtoe, or 2.6%, of total final demand for energy by 20 10, including a rebound effect of 19%, with negligible effects on inflation and a slight increase in economic growth through improved international competitiveness. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.