The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

被引：109

作者：

Buentgen, Ulf ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

Allen, Kathy ^{[5
,6
]}

Anchukaitis, Kevin J. ^{[7
,8
]}

Arseneault, Dominique ^{[9
]}

Boucher, Etienne ^{[10
,11
,12
]}

Brauning, Achim ^{[13
]}

Chatterjee, Snigdhansu ^{[14
]}

Cherubini, Paolo ^{[2
]}

Churakova , Olga, V ^{[15
]}

Corona, Christophe ^{[16
,17
]}

Gennaretti, Fabio ^{[18
,19
]}

Griessinger, Jussi ^{[13
]}

Guillet, Sebastian ^{[17
]}

Guiot, Joel ^{[20
]}

Gunnarson, Bjorn ^{[21
]}

Helama, Samuli ^{[22
]}

Hochreuther, Philipp ^{[13
]}

Hughes, Malcolm K. ^{[8
]}

Huybers, Peter ^{[23
]}

Kirdyanov, Alexander, V ^{[15
,24
]}

Krusic, Paul J. ^{[1
,21
]}

Ludescher, Josef ^{[25
]}

Meier, Wolfgang J-H ^{[13
]}

Myglan, Vladimir S. ^{[26
]}

Nicolussi, Kurt ^{[27
]}

Oppenheimer, Clive ^{[1
,28
]}

Reinig, Frederick ^{[29
]}

Salzer, Matthew W. ^{[8
]}

Seftigen, Kristina ^{[2
,30
]}

Stine, Alexander R. ^{[31
]}

Stoffel, Markus ^{[17
,32
,33
]}

St George, Scott ^{[34
]}

Tejedor, Ernesto ^{[35
]}

Trevino, Aleyda ^{[23
]}

Trouet, Valerie ^{[8
]}

Wang, Jianglin ^{[36
,37
,38
,39
]}

Wilson, Rob ^{[40
,41
]}

Yang, Bao ^{[36
,37
,38
,39
]}

Xu, Guobao ^{[8
,42
]}

Esper, Jan ^{[3
,29
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge, England

[2] Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[3] Global Change Res Ctr CzechGlobe, Brno, Czech Republic

[4] Masaryk Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Geog, Brno, Czech Republic

[5] Univ Melbourne, Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci, Richmond, Australia

[6] Univ NSW, ARC Ctr Excellence Australian Biodivers & Heritag, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[7] Univ Arizona, Sch Geog Dev & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA

[8] Univ Arizona, Lab Tree Ring Res, Tucson, AZ USA

[9] Univ Quebec Rimouski, Dept Biol Chem & Geog, Rimouski, PQ, Canada

[10] Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[11] Univ Quebec Montreal, GEOTOP, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[12] Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Nordiques, Quebec City, PQ, Canada

[13] Friedrich Alexander Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Inst Geog, Erlangen, Germany

[14] Univ Minnesota, Sch Stat, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA

[15] Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

[16] Univ Clermont Auvergne, Geolab UMR 6042 CNRS, Clermont Ferrand, France

[17] Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Geneva, Switzerland

[18] Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, GREMA, Amos, PQ, Canada

[19] Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Forest Res Inst, Amos, PQ, Canada

[20] Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, IRD, Coll France,CEREGE,INRA, Aix En Provence, France

[21] Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden

[22] Nat Resources Inst Finland, Rovaniemi, Finland

[23] Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[24] Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

[25] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany

[26] Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Humanities, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

[27] Univ Innsbruck, Dept Geog, Innsbruck, Austria

[28] McDonald Inst Archaeol Res, Cambridge, England

[29] Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, Mainz, Germany

[30] Gothenburg Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden

[31] San Francisco State Univ, Dept Earth & Climate Sci, San Francisco, CA 94132 USA

[32] Univ Geneva, Dept Earth Sci, Geneva, Switzerland

[33] Univ Geneva, Dept FA Forel Environm & Aquat Sci, Geneva, Switzerland

[34] Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog Environm & Soc, Minneapolis, MN USA

[35] SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA

[36] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Lanzhou, Peoples R China

[37] Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[38] Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Qinghai Res Ctr, Qilian Mt Natl Pk, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China

[39] Qinghai Normal Univ, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China

[40] Univ St Andrews, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland

[41] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA

[42] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2021年 / 12卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SUMMER TEMPERATURES; DENSITY; CHRONOLOGY; WIDTH; VARIABILITY; SENSITIVITY; PERSISTENCE;

D O I：

10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

Tree rings are a crucial archive for Common Era climate reconstructions, but the degree to which methodological decisions influence outcomes is not well known. Here, the authors show how different approaches taken by 15 different groups influence the ensemble temperature reconstruction from the same data. Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

引用

页数：10

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