Survival prediction for advanced cancer patients in the real world: A comparison of the Palliative Prognostic Score, Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model

被引：94

作者：

Baba, Mika ^{[1
]}

Maeda, Isseki ^{[2
]}

Morita, Tatsuya ^{[3
]}

Inoue, Satoshi ^{[4
]}

Ikenaga, Masayuki ^{[5
]}

Matsumoto, Yoshihisa ^{[6
]}

Sekine, Ryuichi ^{[7
]}

Yamaguchi, Takashi ^{[8
]}

Hirohashi, Takeshi ^{[9
]}

Tajima, Tsukasa ^{[10
]}

Tatara, Ryohei ^{[11
]}

Watanabe, Hiroaki ^{[12
]}

Otani, Hiroyuki ^{[13
,14
]}

Takigawa, Chizuko ^{[15
]}

Matsuda, Yoshinobu ^{[16
]}

Nagaoka, Hiroka ^{[17
]}

Mori, Masanori ^{[18
]}

Tei, Yo ^{[4
]}

Hiramoto, Shuji ^{[19
]}

Suga, Akihiko ^{[20
]}

Kinoshita, Hiroya ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Saito Yukoukai Hosp, Palliat Care Div, Ibaraki, Osaka 5670085, Japan

[2] Osaka Univ, Grad Sch Med, Dept Palliat Med, Suita, Osaka 5650871, Japan

[3] Seirei Mikatahara Gen Hosp, Palliat & Support Care Div, Kita Ku, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka 4338558, Japan

[4] Seirei Mikatahara Gen Hosp, Seirei Hosp, Kita Ku, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka 4338558, Japan

[5] Yodogawa Christians Hosp, Childrens Hosp Hosp, Higashiyodogawa Ku, Osaka 5330033, Japan

[6] Natl Canc Ctr Hosp East, Dept Palliat Med, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778577, Japan

[7] Kameda Med Ctr, Dept Pain & Palliat Care, Kamogawa City, Chiba 2968602, Japan

[8] Kobe Univ, Grad Sch Med, Dept Palliat Med, Chuo Ku, Kobe, Hyogo 6500017, Japan

[9] Mitui Mem Hosp, Dept Palliat Care, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1018643, Japan

[10] Tohoku Univ Hosp, Dept Palliat Med, Aoba Ku, Sendai, Miyagi 9808574, Japan

[11] Osaka City Gen Hosp, Dept Palliat Med, Miyakojima Ku, Osaka 5340021, Japan

[12] Komaki City Hosp, Komaki, Aichi 4858520, Japan

[13] Kyushu Natl Canc Ctr, Dept Palliat Care Team, Minami Ku, Fukuoka 8111395, Japan

[14] Kyushu Natl Canc Ctr, Dept Palliat & Support Care, Minami Ku, Fukuoka 8111395, Japan

[15] KKR Sapporo Med Ctr, Dept Palliat Care, Toyohira Ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0620931, Japan

[16] Natl Hosp Org, Kinki Chuo Chest Med Ctr, Dept Psychosomat Med, Sakai, Osaka 5918555, Japan

[17] Univ Tsukuba, Dept Med Social Serv, Ctr Palliat, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058576, Japan

[18] Seirei Hamamatsu Gen Hosp, Naka Ku, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka 4308558, Japan

[19] Mitsubishi Kyoto Hosp, Dept Oncol, Nishikyo Ku, Kyoto 6158087, Japan

[20] Shizuoka Saiseikai Gen Hosp, Dept Palliat Med, Suruga, Shizuoka 4228527, Japan

来源：

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CANCER | 2015年 / 51卷 / 12期

关键词：

Prognosis; Predication; Palliative Prognostic Score; Palliative Prognostic Index; PiPS model; Palliative care; Accuracy; PROSPECTIVE VALIDATION; CONSULTATION SERVICE; AGGRESSIVENESS; SYSTEM; TRENDS; LIFE; PAP; END;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ejca.2015.04.025

中图分类号：

R73 [肿瘤学];

学科分类号：

100214 [肿瘤学];

摘要：

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP score), Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score (D-PaP score), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model (PiPS model). Patients and methods: This multicentre prospective cohort study involved 58 palliative care services, including 19 hospital palliative care teams, 16 palliative care units and 23 home palliative care services, in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Analyses were performed involving four patient groups: those treated by palliative care teams, those in palliative care units, those at home and those receiving chemotherapy. Results: We recruited 2426 participants, and 2361 patients were finally analysed. Risk groups based on these instruments successfully identified patients with different survival profiles in all groups. The feasibility of PPI and modified PiPS-A was more than 90% in all groups, followed by PaP and D-PaP scores; modified PiPS-B had the lowest feasibility. The accuracy of prognostic scores was >= 69% in all groups and the difference was within 13%, while c-statistics were significantly lower with the PPI than PaP and D-PaP scores. Conclusion: The PaP score, D-PaP score, PPI and modified PiPS model provided distinct survival groups for patients in the three palliative care settings and those receiving chemotherapy. The PPI seems to be suitable for routine clinical use for situations where rough estimates of prognosis are sufficient and/or patients do not want invasive procedure. If clinicians can address more items, the modified PiPS-A would be a non-invasive alternative. In cases where blood samples are available or those requiring more accurate prediction, the PaP and D-PaP scores and modified PiPS-B would be more appropriate. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1618 / 1629

页数：12

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