Long-term trends in the timing of breeding and brood size in the Red-Backed Shrike Lanius collurio in the Czech Republic, 1964-2004

Climate change has affected breeding dates and clutch sizes in many bird species. To date, most of the studies aimed at assessing the effects of climate change on these phenological events in birds have been on hole-nesting species and the changes linked either to local climate variation or to some large-scale composite variables, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Relatively less is known about the climate responses of open-nesting birds and on the relative roles of climate variables at different scales. Using bird ringing records covering a time span of 41 years, we documented shifts in the timing of breeding and brood size in a long-distance migrant, the Red-Backed Shrike (Lanius collurio) from a central European population. We found a 3- to 4-day shift towards earlier breeding and an increase in brood size by approximately 0.3 nestlings since 1964. The Red-Backed Shrikes start to breed in May and rear the first nestlings in June. During the period 1964-2004, temperatures in May significantly increased, while the increase in June temperatures was not significant. Simultaneous tests on the influence of local climate variables and the NAO index revealed a better performance of local climate. The increasing temperature in May was positively associated with the advancement of breeding. Similarly, at a local scale, higher May temperatures were followed by larger brood sizes, while a high amount of rainfall had a strong negative effect.