A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

被引:29
作者
Durbach, Ian N. [1 ]
Stewart, Theodor J. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Cape Town, Dept Stat Sci, ZA-7701 Cape Town, South Africa
来源
OMEGA-INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | 2012年 / 40卷 / 04期
关键词
Decision making/process; Multicriteria; Risk; MULTIATTRIBUTE; IMPACT; RISK;
D O I
10.1016/j.omega.2011.08.004
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
Uncertainty is present in many decisions where an action's consequences are unknown because they depend on future events. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) offers an axiomatic basis for choice, but practitioners may prefer to use simpler decision models for transparency, ease of use, or other practical reasons. We identify some 'simplified' models currently in use and use a simulation experiment to evaluate their ability to approximate results obtained using MAUT. Our basic message is that avoiding assessment errors in the application of a simplified model is more important than the choice of a particular type of model, but that the best performance over a range of decision problems is from a model using a small number of quantiles. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:456 / 464
页数:9
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