Iso-risk curves as a tool for clinical decision-making: Donor factors and medical urgency in cardiac transplantation

Background: No significant improvement of overall graft survival in cardiac transplantation has occurred during the past decade, notwithstanding the identification of several prognostic donor and recipient risk factors. By translating multivariate results into iso-risk curves plots, stratified for medical urgency, we attempt to present results in a more practical manner, to be used as guidelines at the time of donor heart offer and of allocation. Methods: We analyzed all first heart-only transplants performed in adults and carried out between January 1, 1997, and June 30, 1998 (N = 1120). Before transplant, 687 patients were at home, 233 on hospital wards, and 200 on the intensive care unit. The overall Cox model yielded 5 independent factors associated with 1-year graft outcome: donor age, donor:recipient weight ratio, medical urgency, end-stage heart disease, and transplant country. We used the significant donor variables of donor age and donor: recipient weight ratio for the iso-risk curves; we calculated relative risks for all combinations of donor age and donor:recipient weight ratio. We obtained iso-risk curves by linking equal relative risks. Results: All iso-risk curves showed that with older donor age, the donor:recipient weight ratio must be higher to obtain the same relative risk for all 3 medical urgency groups. The more urgent the heart transplant candidate, the higher the course of the iso-risk curve for all donor ages. Conclusions: Iso-risk curve is an elegant tool for presenting multivariate analyses in a more practical and patient-oriented manner. The more understandable prognostic factors become the more likely we are to achieve better results in cardiac transplantation and to use more optimally donor hearts. As an example, we have demonstrated the interaction between donor age, donor:recipient size ratio, and, medical urgency.