Diarrhea incidence in low- and middle-income countries in 1990 and 2010: a systematic review

被引:215
作者
Walker, Christa L. Fischer [1 ]
Perin, Jamie [1 ]
Aryee, Martin J. [2 ]
Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia [3 ]
Black, Robert E. [1 ]
机构
[1] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Int Hlth, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA
[2] Johns Hopkins Univ, Sidney Kimmel Comprehens Canc Ctr, Dept Oncol, Div Biostat, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA
[3] World Hlth Org, Dept Child & Adolescent Hlth & Dev, Geneva 27, Switzerland
来源
BMC PUBLIC HEALTH | 2012年 / 12卷
关键词
MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD; INCOMPLETE DATA; GLOBAL PROBLEM; DISEASE; MORTALITY; MAGNITUDE; BOOTSTRAP; CHILDREN; RISK;
D O I
10.1186/1471-2458-12-220
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Background: Diarrhea is recognized as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age in low-and middle-income countries yet updated estimates of diarrhea incidence by age for these countries are greatly needed. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify cohort studies that sought to quantify diarrhea incidence among any age group of children 0-59 mo of age. Methods: We used the Expectation-Maximization algorithm as a part of a two-stage regression model to handle diverse age data and overall incidence rate variation by study to generate country specific incidence rates for low- and middle-income countries for 1990 and 2010. We then calculated regional incidence rates and uncertainty ranges using the bootstrap method, and estimated the total number of episodes for children 0-59 mo of age in 1990 and 2010. Results: We estimate that incidence has declined from 3.4 episodes/child year in 1990 to 2.9 episodes/child year in 2010. As was the case previously, incidence rates are highest among infants 6-11 mo of age; 4.5 episodes/child year in 2010. Among these 139 countries there were nearly 1.9 billion episodes of childhood diarrhea in 1990 and nearly 1.7 billion episodes in 2010. Conclusions: Although our results indicate that diarrhea incidence rates may be declining slightly, the total burden on the health of each child due to multiple episodes per year is tremendous and additional funds are needed to improve both prevention and treatment practices in low-and middle-income countries.
引用
收藏
页数:7
相关论文
共 18 条
  • [1] Beaton G., 1993, Effectiveness of vitamin A supplementation in the control of young child morbidity and mortality in developing countries
  • [2] BERN C, 1992, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V70, P705
  • [3] Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2008: a systematic analysis
    Black, Robert E.
    Cousens, Simon
    Johnson, Hope L.
    Lawn, Joy E.
    Rudan, Igor
    Bassani, Diego G.
    Jha, Prabhat
    Campbell, Harry
    Walker, Christa Fischer
    Cibulskis, Richard
    Eisele, Thomas
    Liu, Li
    Mathers, Colin
    [J]. LANCET, 2010, 375 (9730) : 1969 - 1987
  • [5] Preventive zinc supplementation among infants, preschoolers, and older prepubertal children
    Brown, Kenneth H.
    Peerson, Janet M.
    Baker, Shawn K.
    Hess, Sonja Y.
    [J]. FOOD AND NUTRITION BULLETIN, 2009, 30 (01) : S12 - S40
  • [6] Carpenter J, 2000, STAT MED, V19, P1141, DOI 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(20000515)19:9<1141::AID-SIM479>3.0.CO
  • [7] 2-F
  • [8] Multi-country analysis of the effects of diarrhoea on childhood stunting
    Checkley, William
    Buckley, Gillian
    Gilman, Robert H.
    Assis, Ana M. O.
    Guerrant, Richard L.
    Morris, Saul S.
    Molbak, Kare
    Valentiner-Branth, Palle
    Lanata, Claudio F.
    Black, Robert E.
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2008, 37 (04) : 816 - 830
  • [9] MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD FROM INCOMPLETE DATA VIA EM ALGORITHM
    DEMPSTER, AP
    LAIRD, NM
    RUBIN, DB
    [J]. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-METHODOLOGICAL, 1977, 39 (01): : 1 - 38
  • [10] Second thoughts on the bootstrap
    Efron, B
    [J]. STATISTICAL SCIENCE, 2003, 18 (02) : 135 - 140