New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific

被引:32
作者
Fan Ke [1 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
来源
SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES | 2007年 / 50卷 / 09期
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
predictors; the western North Pacific typhoon frequency; forecast model;
D O I
10.1007/s11430-007-0105-x
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
In this paper, the impacts of the atmospheric circulation during boreal winter-spring on the western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon frequency (WNPTF) are studied. Several new factors in winter-spring influencing the typhoon frequency were identified, including the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the North Pacific oscillation. Based on these results, the multi-linear regression was applied to establishing a new forecast model for the typhoon frequency by using the datasets of 1965-1999. The forecast model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.79) between the model simulated and the actual typhoon frequencies in the period of 1965-1999. The forecast model also exhibits reasonable hindcasts for the typhoon frequencies for the years 2000-2006. Therefore, this work demonstrates that the new predictors are significant for the prediction of the interannual variability of the WNPTF, which could be potentially used in the operational seasonal forecast of the typhoon frequency in the WNP to get a more physically based operational prediction model and higher forecast skill.
引用
收藏
页码:1417 / 1423
页数:7
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