Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

被引：469

作者：

Frieler, Katja ^{[1
]}

Lange, Stefan ^{[1
]}

Piontek, Franziska ^{[1
]}

Reyer, Christopher P. O. ^{[1
]}

Schewe, Jacob ^{[1
]}

Warszawski, Lila ^{[1
]}

Zhao, Fang ^{[1
]}

Chini, Louise ^{[2
]}

Denvil, Sebastien ^{[3
]}

Emanuel, Kerry ^{[4
]}

Geiger, Tobias ^{[1
]}

Halladay, Kate ^{[5
]}

Hurtt, George ^{[2
]}

Mengel, Matthias ^{[1
]}

Murakami, Daisuke ^{[6
]}

Ostberg, Sebastian ^{[1
,7
]}

Popp, Alexander ^{[1
]}

Riva, Riccardo ^{[8
,9
]}

Stevanovic, Miodrag ^{[1
]}

Suzuki, Tatsuo ^{[10
]}

Volkholz, Jan ^{[1
]}

Burke, Eleanor ^{[5
]}

Ciais, Philippe ^{[11
]}

Ebi, Kristie ^{[12
]}

Eddy, Tyler D. ^{[13
,14
]}

Elliott, Joshua ^{[15
,16
]}

Galbraith, Eric ^{[17
,18
,19
]}

Gosling, Simon N. ^{[20
]}

Hattermann, Fred ^{[1
]}

Hickler, Thomas ^{[21
]}

Hinkel, Jochen ^{[22
,23
,24
]}

Hof, Christian ^{[21
]}

Huber, Veronika ^{[1
]}

Jagermeyr, Jonas ^{[1
]}

Krysanova, Valentina

Marce, Rafael ^{[25
]}

Schmied, Hannes Mueller ^{[21
,26
]}

Mouratiadou, Ioanna ^{[27
]}

Pierson, Don ^{[28
]}

Tittensor, Derek P. ^{[13
,29
]}

Vautard, Robert ^{[11
]}

van Vliet, Michelle ^{[30
]}

Biber, Matthias F. ^{[21
]}

Betts, Richard A. ^{[5
,31
]}

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ^{[1
]}

Deryng, Delphine ^{[15
,32
]}

Frolking, Steve ^{[33
]}

Jones, Chris D. ^{[5
]}

Lotze, Heike K. ^{[13
]}

Lotze-Campen, Hermann ^{[1
,34
]}

机构：

[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

[2] Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD USA

[3] Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France

[4] MIT, Program Atmospheres Oceans & Climate, Cambridge, MA USA

[5] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

[6] Inst Stat Math, Dept Stat Modeling, Tachikawa, Tokyo, Japan

[7] Humboldt Univ, 7Geog Dept, Berlin, Germany

[8] Delft Univ Technol, Dept Geosci & Remote Sensing, NL-2628 CN Delft, Netherlands

[9] Delft Univ Technol, Climate Inst, NL-2628 CN Delft, Netherlands

[10] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Integrated Climate Change Project Res, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

[11] Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France

[12] Univ Washington, Seattle, WA USA

[13] Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS, Canada

[14] Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nereus Program, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[15] Columbia Univ, CCSR Earth Inst, New York, NY USA

[16] Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL USA

[17] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, ICTA, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain

[18] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Math, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain

[19] Catalan Inst Res & Adv Studies ICREA, Barcelona 08010, Spain

[20] Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham, England

[21] Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr BiK F, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany

[22] Global Climate Forum, D-10178 Berlin, Germany

[23] Humboldt Univ, Albrecht Daniel Thaer Inst, Div Resource Econ, Berlin, Germany

[24] Humboldt Univ, Berlin Workshop Inst Anal Social Ecol Syst WINS, Berlin, Germany

[25] Catalan Inst Water Res ICRA, Girona, Spain

[26] Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Frankfurt, Germany

[27] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands

[28] Uppsala Univ, Dept Limnol, Uppsala, Sweden

[29] United Nations Environm Programme World Conserv, Cambridge, England

[30] Wageningen Univ, Water Syst & Global Change Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands

[31] Hatherly Labs, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Prince Wales Rd, Exeter EX4 4PS, Devon, England

[32] Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany

[33] Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH USA

[34] Humboldt Univ, Berlin, Germany

[35] Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, Int Ctr Climate & Global Change Res, Auburn, AL USA

[36] Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecoenvironm Sci, State Key Lab Urban & Reg Ecol, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China

[37] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

来源：

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT | 2017年 / 10卷 / 12期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; BIAS CORRECTION; FLOOD RISK; WATER-USE; LAND; TEMPERATURE; 21ST-CENTURY; VARIABILITY;

D O I：

10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

070403 [天体物理学];

摘要：

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 degrees C, including a potential overshoot and longterm impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the lowemissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

引用

页码：4321 / 4345

页数：25

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