COLLABORATION OF THE WEATHER AND CLIMATE COMMUNITIES TO ADVANCE SUBSEASONAL-TO-SEASONAL PREDICTION

被引：177

作者：

Brunet, Gilbert ^{[1
]}

Shapiro, Melvyn ^{[3
]}

Hoskins, Brian ^{[4
,5
]}

Moncrieff, Mitch ^{[2
]}

Dole, Randall ^{[6
]}

Kiladis, George N. ^{[6
]}

Kirtman, Ben ^{[7
,8
]}

Lorenc, Andrew ^{[9
]}

Mills, Brian ^{[10
]}

Morss, Rebecca ^{[2
]}

Polavarapu, Saroja ^{[11
]}

Rogers, David ^{[12
]}

Schaake, John ^{[13
]}

Shukla, Jagadish ^{[14
]}

机构：

[1] Environm Canada, Meteorol Res Div, Dorval, PQ H9P 1J3, Canada

[2] Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA

[3] Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, Bergen, Norway

[4] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Grantham Inst Climate Change, London, England

[5] Univ Reading, Reading, Berks, England

[6] NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA

[7] Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD USA

[8] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA

[9] Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England

[10] Environm Canada, Adaptat & Impacts Res Div, Waterloo, ON, Canada

[11] Environm Canada, Meteorol Res Div, Toronto, ON, Canada

[12] Hlth & Climate Fdn, Washington, DC USA

[13] NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Off Hydrol Dev, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA

[14] George Mason Univ, Fairfax, MD USA

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2010年 / 91卷 / 10期

关键词：

PART I; MODEL; FORECASTS; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.1175/2010BAMS3013.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Progress in long-range prediction depends on coordination of research in multimodel ensembles, in tropical convection and its interaction with the global circulation, in data assimilation, and in socio-economic applications. The four main areas of the World Weather Research Program-World Climate Research Program (WWRP-WCRP) collaboration includes seamless weather/climate prediction, including ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), multiscale organization of tropical convection and its two-way interaction with the global circulation, data assimilation for coupled models, and utilization of sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions for social and economic benefits. Data assimilation allows the diagnosis of errors while they are still small, before they interact significantly with other fields. The success of this endeavor will depend on the collaboration, commitment, excellence, and strength of the weather, climate, Earth system, and social science research communities.

引用

页码：1397 / 1406

页数：10

共 33 条

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