Adapting to climate change in Pacific Island Countries: The problem of uncertainty

被引:242
作者
Barnett, J [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Canterbury, Christchurch 1, New Zealand
关键词
adaptation; climate change; Pacific Islands; policy; resilience; uncertainty; vulnerability;
D O I
10.1016/S0305-750X(01)00022-5
中图分类号
F0 [经济学]; F1 [世界各国经济概况、经济史、经济地理]; C [社会科学总论];
学科分类号
0201 ; 020105 ; 03 ; 0303 ;
摘要
This paper investigates the problem of scientific uncertainty and the way it impedes planning for climate change and accelerated sea-level rise (CC & ASLR) in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The paper begins by discussing the problems CC & ASLR poses for PICs, and it explores the limitations of the dominant approach to vulnerability and adaptation. Next, the paper considers the way scientific uncertainty problematizes policies aimed at adaptation to CC & ASLR. It argues that the prevailing approach, which requires anticipation of impacts, is unsuccessful, and the paper proposes a complementary strategy aimed to enhance the resilience of whole island social-ecological systems. Recent developments in the theory and practice of resilience are discussed and then applied to formulate goals for adaptation policy in PICs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:977 / 993
页数:17
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