Planning for climate change:: Identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape proteaceae

被引:202
作者
Williams, P
Hannah, L
Andelman, S
Midgley, G
Araújo, M
Hughes, G
Manne, L
Martinez-Meyer, E
Pearson, R
机构
[1] Nat Hist Museum, Biogeog & Conservat Lab, London SW7 5BD, England
[2] Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC 20036 USA
[3] Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA
[4] Natl Bot Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, Climate Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa
[5] Univ Toronto, Dept Zool, Scarborough, ON M1C 1A4, Canada
[6] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biol, Dept Zool, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
[7] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3SZ, England
关键词
area-selection algorithms; bioclimatic modeling; biodiversity conservation; connectivity; habitat suitability; species persistence;
D O I
10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00080.x
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km(2)) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.
引用
收藏
页码:1063 / 1074
页数:12
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