Predictive value of six risk scores for outcome after surgical repair of hip fracture in elderly patients

Background: Hip fracture surgery is associated with high post-operative mortality and poor functional results: the excess mortality is 20% in the first year; of those patients who survive, only 50% recover their previous ability to walk. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of six functional status and/or surgical risk scoring systems with regard to serious complications after hip fracture surgery in the elderly. Methods: We performed a prospective study of a consecutive series of 232 patients (aged 65 years or older) undergoing hip fracture surgery. We pre-operatively applied: The American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, the Barthel index, the Goldman index, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system, the Charlson index and the Visual Analogue Scale for Risk (RISK-VAS) scale. These scales were evaluated with respect to three variables: incidence of serious complications, the ability to walk after a 3-month period and 90-day survival. The predictive value of the different scales was assessed by the calculated area under a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: The RISK-VAS scale, the POSSUM scoring system and the Charlson index reached a sufficient predictive value with regard to serious post-operative complications. The Barthel index and the RISK-VAS scale were those most useful for predicting ambulation at 3 months. None of the scales proved to be capable of predicting 90-day mortality. Conclusions: A simple index such as the RISK-VAS scale was the best predictor of serious post-operative complications. The functional level before the fracture, measured with the Barthel index, had a major influence on the ambulation recovery.