Estimating the evolution of vegetation cover and its hydrological impact in the Mekong River basin in the 21st century

The terrestrial biosphere plays a key role in regional energy and water cycles. Thus, for long-term hydrological predictions, possible future changes in vegetation cover must be understood. This study examined the evolution of vegetation cover in the 21st century and its estimated impact on river discharge in the Mekong River basin. Based oil climatic predictions (TYN SC 2.03) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, changes in vegetation type and the leaf area index (LAI) were simulated using a Lund-Potsdam-Jetia-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) and Terrestrial Biogeochemical Cycle Model (BIOME-BGC). The estimated LAI was then used in the rainfall-runoff analysis in the Yamanashi Distributed Hydrological Model (YHyM). The simulation results indicated a significant change in vegetation type mainly on the Tibetan Plateau and in mountainous areas, with the degree of change differing for each SRES scenario; LAI increases around the edge of the Tibetan Plateau and decreases in the lower reaches of the basin; and more conspicuous changes in river discharge in upstream areas than in the middle to lower reaches, mainly due to increases in precipitation in the plateau region. After the 2050s, the results suggested changes in river discharge will be slowed due to changes in evapotranspiration. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.