Channel instability and aquatic ecosystem degradation have been linked to watershed imperviousness in humid regions of the U.S. In an effort to provide a more process-based linkage between observed thresholds of aquatic ecosystem degradation and urbanization, standard single event approaches (U.S. Geological Survey Flood Regression Equations and rational) and continuous hydrologic models (HSPF and CASC2D) were used to examine potential changes in flow regime associated with varying levels of watershed imperviousness. The predicted changes in flow parameters were then interpreted in concert with risk-based models of channel form and instability. Although low levels of imperviousness (10 to 20 percent) clearly have the potential to destabilize streams, changes in discharge, and thus stream power, associated with increased impervious area are highly variable and dependent upon watershed-specific conditions. In addition to the storage characteristics of the pre-development watershed, the magnitude of change is sensitive to the connectivity and conveyance of impervious areas as well as the specific characteristics of the receiving channels. Different stream types are likely to exhibit varying degrees and types of instability, depending on entrenchment, relative erodibility of bed and banks, riparian condition, mode of sediment transport (bedload versus suspended load), and proximity to geomorphic thresholds. Nonetheless, simple risk-based analyses of the potential impacts of land use change on aquatic ecosystems have the potential to redirect and improve the effectiveness of watershed management strategies by facilitating the identification of channels that may be most sensitive to changes in stream power.
