Municipal solid waste: a prediction methodology for the generation rate and composition in the European Union countries and the United States of America

The economically-viable and environmentally-acceptable disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major concern in many industrialised countries. The main problem facing policy makers in the waste management sector is how to predict the amount and the composition of MSW that is likely to be generated in the near future in order to devise the most appropriate treatment/disposal strategy. Published data on MSW arisings in European countries during the period 1980-1993 and those for the USA between 1960 and 1993 have been correlated with the corresponding figures for the gross domestic product (GDP) and population. The typical composition of MSW has been expressed in terms of the fraction of the total consumer expenditure on goods and products resulting in the generation of MSW, i.e. related total consumer expenditure (RTCE). A model linking RTCE to GDP has been developed and utilised to estimate the amounts of the individual fractions in the total MSW generated. The correlations permit highly-accurate predictions of the total amount of MSW arisings to be obtained both for European countries and the USA. Deviations between the predicted and measured values are, however, much lower in the case of the USA, because the corresponding model is based on data for a single country. Good matches between the predicted and measured figures for the individual fractions of the MSW also ensue. However, the model for predicting the individual fractions in the MSW for the European countries is based solely on information available for the UK. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.