Systematic testing of an integrated systems model for coastal zone management using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

被引:26
作者
Nguyen, T. G.
de Kok, J. L.
机构
[1] Hanoi Univ Sci, Fac Hydro Meteorol & Oceanog, Hanoi, Vietnam
[2] Univ Twente, Fac Engn Technol, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands
关键词
integrated systems model; coastal zone management; decision support system; sensitivity and uncertainty analyses; expert elicitation; validation; testing; sulawesi;
D O I
10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.08.008
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
Systematic testing of integrated systems models is extremely important but its difficulty is widely underestimated. The inherent complexity of the integrated systems models, the philosophical debate about the model validity and validation, the uncertainty in model inputs, parameters and future context and the scarcity of field data complicate model validation. This calls for a validation framework and procedures which can identify the strengths and weaknesses of the model with the available data from observations, the literature and experts' opinions. This paper presents such a framework and the respective procedure. Three tests, namely, Parameter-Verification, Behaviour-Anomaly and Policy-Sensitivity are selected to test a Rapid assessment Model for Coastal-zone Management (RaMCo). The Morris sensitivity analysis, a simple expert elicitation technique and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis are used to facilitate these three tests. The usefulness of the procedure is demonstrated for two examples. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:1572 / 1587
页数:16
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