Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus

被引：277

作者：

Messina, Jane P. ^{[1
]}

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^{[1
]}

Brady, Oliver J. ^{[2
]}

Pigott, David M. ^{[2
,3
]}

Shearer, Freya M. ^{[2
]}

Weiss, Daniel J. ^{[1
]}

Golding, Nick ^{[4
]}

Ruktanonchar, Corrine W. ^{[5
]}

Gething, Peter W. ^{[1
]}

Cohn, Emily ^{[6
]}

Brownstein, John S. ^{[6
]}

Khan, Kamran ^{[7
,8
]}

Tatem, Andrew J. ^{[5
,9
]}

Jaenisch, Thomas ^{[10
,11
]}

Murray, Christopher J. L. ^{[3
]}

Marinho, Fatima ^{[12
]}

Scott, Thomas W. ^{[13
]}

Hay, Simon I. ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Wellcome Trust Ctr Human Genet, Oxford, England

[3] Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[4] Univ Melbourne, Dept BioSci, Parkville, Vic, Australia

[5] Univ Southampton, Dept Geog & Environm, VorldPop Project, Southampton, Hants, England

[6] Harvard Med Sch, Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA USA

[7] Univ Toronto, Div Infect Dis, Dept Med, Toronto, ON, Canada

[8] St Michaels Hosp, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Inst, Toronto, ON, Canada

[9] Flowminder Fdn, Stockholm, Sweden

[10] Univ Heidelberg Hosp, Sect Clin Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis, Heidelberg, Germany

[11] German Ctr Infect Res DZIF, Heidelberg Partner Site, Heidelberg, Germany

[12] Minist Hlth Brazil, Secretariat Hlth Surveillance, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

[13] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Entomol & Nematol, Davis, CA 95616 USA

来源：

ELIFE | 2016年 / 5卷

基金：

英国经济与社会研究理事会; 美国国家卫生研究院; 英国惠康基金;

关键词：

AEDES-AEGYPTI DIPTERA; DENGUE-FEVER; HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER; ZOONOTIC NICHE; TRANSMISSION; CLIMATE; SURVIVAL; TEMPERATURE; DISEASE; MODELS;

D O I：

10.7554/eLife.15272

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barre syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.

引用

页数：19

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