Estimation of effective reproduction numbers for infectious diseases using serological survey data

The effective reproduction number of an infection, denoted R-e, may be used to monitor the impact of a vaccination programme. If R-e is maintained below 1, then sustained endemic transmission of the infection cannot occur. In this paper we discuss methods for estimating R-e from serological survey data, allowing for age and individual heterogeneity. We describe semi-parametric and parametric models, and obtain an upper bound on R-e when vaccine coverage and efficacy are not known. The methods are illustrated using data on mumps and rubella in England and Wales.