All age-depth models are wrong: but how badly?

被引：258

作者：

Telford, RJ

Heegaard, E

Birks, HJB

机构：

[1] Univ Bergen, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway

[2] Univ Bergen, Inst Bot, N-5007 Bergen, Norway

[3] UCL, Environm Change Res Ctr, London WC1H 0AP, England

来源：

QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS | 2004年 / 23卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.11.003

中图分类号：

P9 [自然地理学];

学科分类号：

0705 ; 070501 ;

摘要：

The uncertainty and error associated with fitted age-depth models were investigated by fitting a range of models to sets of simulated radiocarbon dates based on varved sediments and comparing the modelled relationship with the varve timescale. With large numbers of dates, cubic smooth splines out-perform other models; with few dates, no model reliably provides a good fit to reality, and calculated confidence intervals are over-optimistic. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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页码：1 / 5

页数：5

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