Modelling of forecast errors in geophysical fluid flows

被引:8
作者
Bannister, R. N. [1 ]
Katz, D. [2 ]
Cullen, M. J. P. [3 ]
Lawless, A. S. [2 ]
Nichols, N. K. [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Data Assimilat Res Ctr, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
[2] Univ Reading, Dept Math, Reading RG6 6AX, Berks, England
[3] Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
data assimilation; forecast error covariances; potential vorticity; meterology; unified model; shallow water equations;
D O I
10.1002/fld.1618
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
A method is sought to decompose errors in numerical forecasts of the atmosphere into components that are uncorrelated. This can simplify the representation of the probability density function of forecast errors so that it can be used in data assimilation. A new method based on potential vorticity (PV) is used to partition errors into balanced and unbalanced variables that are thought to be mutually uncorrelated. The effectiveness of the PV method is compared with a simpler method. A toy model and an operational forecasting model are used to show that the PV-based variables are usually less correlated than those of the simpler approach. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:1147 / 1153
页数:7
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