Optimal extrapolation of traffic load effects

This paper proposes a method for determining optimal fittings of the Rice formula to the tails of outcrossing rate histograms related to traffic load effects. An optimal fitting is obtained through a series of statistical tests between successive fittings and the histogram tails. Optimality is found when a confidence level beta (0) for the Kolmogorov test is verified. That provides the optimal number of class intervals to take into account the load-effect extrapolation under the hypothesis that the process is stationary and Gaussian. Extrapolations are given for minimal and maximal load effects for any return period. Some examples highlight the use of the method. :(C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.