The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission

被引:134
作者
Kucharski, A. J. [1 ]
Althaus, C. L. [2 ]
机构
[1] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London WC1, England
[2] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland
基金
英国医学研究理事会; 瑞士国家科学基金会; 美国国家卫生研究院;
关键词
D O I
10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
As at 15 June 2015, a large transmission cluster of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was ongoing in South Korea. To examine the potential for such events, we estimated the level of heterogeneity in MERS-CoV transmission by analysing data on cluster size distributions. We found substantial potential for superspreading; even though it is likely that R-0 < 1 overall, our analysis indicates that cluster sizes of over 150 cases are not unexpected for MERS-CoV infection.
引用
收藏
页码:14 / 18
页数:5
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