Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios:: Part II.: Accounting for adaptation and CO2 direct effects

被引:39
作者
Easterling, WE [1 ]
Mearns, LO
Hays, CJ
Marx, D
机构
[1] Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
[2] Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
[3] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Soc Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[4] Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resource Sci, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA
[5] Univ Nebraska, Dept Biometry, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
D O I
10.1023/A:1012267900745
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
We assert that the simulation of fine-scale crop growth processes and agronomic adaptive management using coarse-scale climate change scenarios lower confidence in regional estimates of agronomic adaptive potential. Specifically, we ask: 1) are simulated yield responses to low-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2), significantly different from simulated yield responses to high-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2)? and 2) does the scale of the soils information, in addition to the scale of the climate change information, affect yields after adaptation? Equilibrium (1 x CO2 versus 2 x CO2) climate changes are simulated at two different spatial resolutions in the Great Plains using the CSIRO general circulation model (low resolution) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) RegCM2 regional climate model (high resolution). The EPIC crop model is used to simulate the effects of these climate changes; adaptations in EPIC include earlier planting and switch to longer-season cultivars. Adapted yields (without and with additional carbon dioxide) are compared at the different spatial resolutions. Our findings with respect to question 1 suggest adaptation is more effective in most cases when simulated with a higher resolution climate change than its more generalized low resolution equivalent. We are not persuaded that the use of high resolution climate change information provides insights into the direct effects of higher atmospheric CO2 levels on crops beyond what can be obtained with low resolution information. However, this last finding may be partly an artifact of the agriculturally benign CSIRO and RegCM2 climate changes. With respect to question 2, we found that high resolution details of soil characteristics are particularly important to include in adaptation simulations in regions typified by soils with poor water holding capacity.
引用
收藏
页码:173 / 197
页数:25
相关论文
共 22 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], CONTR WORK GROUP 2 2
[2]   SIMULATIONS OF CROP RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE - EFFECTS WITH PRESENT TECHNOLOGY AND CURRENTLY AVAILABLE ADJUSTMENTS (THE SMART FARMER SCENARIO) [J].
EASTERLING, WE ;
ROSENBERG, NJ ;
LEMON, KM ;
MCKENNEY, MS .
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 1992, 59 (1-2) :75-102
[3]   Improving the validation of model-simulated crop yield response to climate change: An application to the EPIC model [J].
Easterling, WE ;
Chen, XF ;
Hays, C ;
Brandle, JR ;
Zhang, HH .
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 1996, 6 (03) :263-273
[4]   Spatial scales of climate information for simulating wheat and maize productivity: the case of the US Great Plains [J].
Easterling, WE ;
Weiss, A ;
Hays, CJ ;
Mearns, LO .
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 1998, 90 (1-2) :51-63
[5]   AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS OF AND RESPONSES TO CLIMATE-CHANGE IN THE MISSOURI-IOWA-NEBRASKA-KANSAS (MINK) REGION [J].
EASTERLING, WE ;
CROSSON, PR ;
ROSENBERG, NJ ;
MCKENNEY, MS ;
KATZ, LA ;
LEMON, KM .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 1993, 24 (1-2) :23-61
[6]   Why regional studies are needed in the development of full-scale integrated assessment modelling of global change processes [J].
Easterling, WE .
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 1997, 7 (04) :337-356
[7]   Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review [J].
Easterling, WE .
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 1996, 80 (01) :1-53
[8]   PREPARING THE EROSION PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT CALCULATOR (EPIC) MODEL TO SIMULATE CROP RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF CO2 [J].
EASTERLING, WE ;
ROSENBERG, NJ ;
MCKENNEY, MS ;
JONES, CA ;
DYKE, PT ;
WILLIAMS, JR .
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 1992, 59 (1-2) :17-34
[9]   SIMULATIONS OF CROP RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE - EFFECTS WITH PRESENT TECHNOLOGY AND NO ADJUSTMENTS (THE DUMB FARMER SCENARIO) [J].
EASTERLING, WE ;
MCKENNEY, MS ;
ROSENBERG, NJ ;
LEMON, KM .
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 1992, 59 (1-2) :53-73
[10]  
Kiniry J. R., 1990, USDA ARS TECH B, V1768, P220