Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity

被引：247

作者：

McMahon, Sean M. ^{[1
]}

Harrison, Sandy P. ^{[2
]}

Armbruster, W. Scott ^{[3
,13
,14
]}

Bartlein, Patrick J. ^{[4
]}

Beale, Colin M. ^{[5
]}

Edwards, Mary E. ^{[6
]}

Kattge, Jens ^{[7
]}

Midgley, Guy ^{[8
]}

Morin, Xavier ^{[9
,10
,12
]}

Prentice, I. Colin ^{[2
,11
]}

机构：

[1] Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, Smithsonian Inst Global Earth Observ, Edgewater, MD 21307 USA

[2] Macquarie Univ, Sch Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia

[3] Univ Portsmouth, Sch Biol Sci, Portsmouth PO1 2DY, Hants, England

[4] Univ Oregon, Dept Geog, Eugene, OR 97403 USA

[5] Univ York, Dept Biol, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England

[6] Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England

[7] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07745 Jena, Germany

[8] S African Natl Biodivers Inst, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa

[9] CNRS, Ctr Ecol Fonct & Evolut, F-34293 Montpellier 5, France

[10] ETH, Forest Ecol Grp, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[11] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Grantham Inst, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England

[12] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Div Biol, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England

[13] Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA

[14] NTNU, Dept Biol, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway

来源：

TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION | 2011年 / 26卷 / 05期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIABILITY; PLANT FUNCTIONAL TYPES; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; SPECIES RANGE SHIFTS; VEGETATION DYNAMICS; FIRE REGIMES; FUTURE; DISTRIBUTIONS; NICHE; TRAITS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.tree.2011.02.012

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, Oil quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (Hi) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.

引用

页码：249 / 259

页数：11

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