Tropical climate influences on drought variability over Java']Java, Indonesia

被引:29
作者
D'Arrigo, Rosanne [1 ]
Smerdon, Jason E. [1 ]
机构
[1] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1029/2007GL032589
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
We investigate relationships between Indonesian drought, the state of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and ENSO using three instrumental indices spanning 1884-1997 A.D.: 1. EQWIN, a zonal wind index for the equatorial Indian Ocean; 2. the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), an indicator of the Indian Ocean SST gradient; and 3. tropical Pacific Nino-3.4 SSTs. A regression model of the Java Sep-Dec Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) using a combination of these indices provides significant predictive skill (ar(2) = 0.50). Both the DMI and EQWIN correlate strongly with Java droughts (r = 0.71 and 0.66, respectively), but weakly with wet events (r = 0.21 and 0.18, respectively), while the Nino SST index correlates moderately with both dry and wet events (r = 0.31 and 0.36, respectively). Our findings indicate that Java droughts are intensified during E1 Ninos that coincide with negative EQWIN conditions, which are also linked to a strengthened Indian monsoon.
引用
收藏
页数:5
相关论文
共 30 条
[1]   Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the Holocene epoch [J].
Abram, Nerilie J. ;
Gagan, Michael K. ;
Liu, Zhengyu ;
Hantoro, Wahyoe S. ;
McCulloch, Malcolm T. ;
Suwargadi, Bambang W. .
NATURE, 2007, 445 (7125) :299-302
[2]   Coral reef death during the 1997 Indian Ocean dipole linked to Indonesian wildfires [J].
Abram, NJ ;
Gagan, MK ;
McCulloch, MT ;
Chappell, J ;
Hantoro, WS .
SCIENCE, 2003, 301 (5635) :952-955
[3]   Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature [J].
Aldrian, E ;
Susanto, RD .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2003, 23 (12) :1435-1452
[4]  
Allan J. R., 2000, NINO SO OSCILLATION, P3, DOI DOI 10.1017/CB09780511573125.002
[5]  
Allan R., 2001, CLIVAR EXCH, V21, P18
[6]   Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO [J].
Ashok, K ;
Guan, ZY ;
Yamagata, T .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2001, 28 (23) :4499-4502
[7]  
Beck C, 2005, NEW MONTHLY PRECIPIT, P181
[8]  
Cook E.R. L.A. Kairiukstis., 2013, METHODS DENDROCHRONO
[9]   El Nino and Indian Ocean influences on Indonesian drought: implications for forecasting rainfall and crop productivity [J].
D'Arrigo, Rosanne ;
Wilson, Rob .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2008, 28 (05) :611-616
[10]   Increased Eurasian-tropical temperature amplitude difference in recent centuries: Implications for the Asian monsoon [J].
D'Arrigo, Rosanne ;
Wilson, Rob ;
Li, Jinbao .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2006, 33 (22)