On the time to extinction in recurrent epidemics

被引：127

作者：

Nåsell, I ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Royal Inst Technol, Dept Math, S-10044 Stockholm, Sweden

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY | 1999年 / 61卷

关键词：

critical community size; persistence threshold; quasi-stationary distribution; stochastic fade-out; time to extinction;

D O I：

10.1111/1467-9868.00178

中图分类号：

O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];

学科分类号：

020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;

摘要：

An approximation is derived for the expected time to extinction in a stochastic model for recurrent epidemics. Numerical illustrations indicate that the approximation is crude but that it has the correct order of magnitude. The quasi-stationary distribution plays an important role in the derivation. Approximations for the critical community size and for the persistence threshold are derived. Comments are made on the classical study by Bartlett (1956-1960).

引用

页码：309 / 330

页数：22

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