A system dynamics model for long-term planning of the undergraduate education in Brazil

Higher education in Brazil has experienced a rapid expansion since the 1990s as a consequence of the government's pliability in launching new programs and educational institutions. This expansion was mainly driven by the private sector. Despite this expansion, Brazil has not yet achieved the enrollment goal expected in the National Education Plan launched in 2010. Moreover, the demand for undergraduate programs, is presenting signs of reduction, characterizing a system with fast initial growth followed by stagnation. This paper presents the construction and application of a system dynamics model for analyzing long-term policies concerning undergraduate programs in Brazil at an aggregate level. The main objective of the model is to conduct scenario analysis given by the different behavior of several aspects related to the system, such as government regulation, demand, places, and the balance between public and private sectors. A scenario analysis was conducted, considering different policies regarding the nature of education and economic development. The results are highly promising, demonstrating the potential of this approach for both understanding the dynamic behavior of higher education, improving policies, and developing effective strategies.