Transmission Network Parameters Estimated From HIV Sequences for a Nationwide Epidemic

被引：159

作者：

Brown, Andrew J. Leigh ^{[1
]}

Lycett, Samantha J. ^{[1
]}

Weinert, Lucy ^{[1
]}

Hughes, Gareth J. ^{[1
]}

Fearnhill, Esther ^{[2
]}

Dunn, David T. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Edinburgh, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, Midlothian, Scotland

[2] MRC, Clin Trials Unit, London, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2011年 / 204卷 / 09期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

PREFERENTIAL ATTACHMENT; MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY; DRUG-RESISTANCE; SEXUAL NETWORKS; INFECTION; BRITAIN; TYPE-1; RISK; EVOLUTION; CONTACTS;

D O I：

10.1093/infdis/jir550

中图分类号：

R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];

学科分类号：

100102 ;

摘要：

Methods. A phylodynamic analysis was performed on partial pol gene sequences obtained for routine clinical care from 14 560 individuals, representing approximately 60% of the HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) under care in the United Kingdom. Results. Among individuals linked to others in the data set, 29% are linked to only 1 individual, 41% are linked to 2-10 individuals, and 29% are linked to >= 10 individuals. The right-skewed degree distribution can be approximated by a power law, but the data are best fitted by a Waring distribution for all time depths. For time depths of 5-7 years, the distribution parameter lies within the range that indicates infinite variance. Conclusions. The transmission network among UK MSM is characterized by preferential association such that a randomly distributed intervention would not be expected to stop the epidemic.

引用

页码：1463 / 1469

页数：7

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