On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption

被引：56

作者：

Hock, Heinrich ^{[3
]}

Weil, David N. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Brown Univ, Dept Econ, Providence, RI 02912 USA

[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] Mathemat Policy Res, Washington, DC 20024 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS | 2012年 / 25卷 / 03期

关键词：

Aging; Consumption; Intergenerational transfers; SOCIAL-SECURITY; LOW FERTILITY; BABY BOOM; GROWTH; DEBT; EMERGENCE; PENSIONS; CHILDREN; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1007/s00148-011-0372-x

中图分类号：

C921 [人口统计学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

We examine the effects of population aging due to declining fertility and rising elderly life expectancy on consumption possibilities in the presence of intergenerational transfers. Our analysis is based on a highly tractable continuous-time overlapping generations model in which the population is divided into three groups (youth dependents, workers, and elderly dependents) and lifecourse transitions take place in a probabilistic fashion. We show that the consumption-maximizing response to greater longevity in highly developed countries is an increase in fertility. However, with larger transfer payments, the actual fertility response will likely be the opposite, leading to further population aging.

引用

页码：1019 / 1043

页数：25

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