Spurious regressions in financial economics?

被引:245
作者
Ferson, WE [1 ]
Sarkissian, S
Simin, TT
机构
[1] Boston Univ, Carroll Sch Management, Boston, MA 02215 USA
[2] Natl Bur Econ Res, Boston, MA USA
[3] McGill Univ, Fac Management, Montreal, PQ H3A 2T5, Canada
[4] Penn State Univ, Smeal Coll Business, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1111/1540-6261.00571
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Even though stock returns are not highly autocorrelated, there is a spurious regression bias in predictive regressions for stock returns related to the classic studies of Yule (1926) and Granger and Newbold (1974). Data mining for predictor variables interacts with spurious regression bias. The two effects reinforce each other, because more highly persistent series are more likely to be found significant in the search for predictor variables. Our simulations suggest that many of the regressions in the literature, based on individual predictor variables, may be spurious.
引用
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页码:1393 / 1413
页数:21
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