Overview and comparison of long-term forecasting techniques for a fast developing utility: part I

The intrinsic uncertainties associated with demand forecasting become more acute when it is required to provide an invaluable dimension to the decision-making process in a period characterized by fast and dynamic changes. In this paper, estimates of the peak demand, pertaining to a typical fast growing system with inherit dynamic load characteristics, and also a normal developing system, is derived from the classical long-term forecasting methods. These demand estimates are compared with corresponding actual values. Then, a proposed model based on demand characteristics of fast developing utility is obtained to yield best fit. Afterwards, improved modeling of the system load characteristics using a knowledge-based expert system, described in a companion paper (Part II), will demonstrate better forecasts compared with forecasts obtained by direct applications of classical techniques. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.