Risks from radionuclide migration to groundwater in the Chernobyl 30-km zone

Remediation of contaminated groundwater in the Chernobyl 30-km evacuation zone is frequently identified as a priority by technical experts and Chernobyl site officials in Ukraine. In order to evaluate the health risk basis for this groundwater remediation, we have estimated both on-site and off-site health risks caused by radionuclide migration to the groundwater and compared these risks with those from exposure to radioactive contamination on the ground surface. A simple and conservative analytical model was developed to assess radionuclide transport to the groundwater from the soil surface contaminated by radioactive fallout. Sr-90, the primary radioactive contaminant of concern for the groundwater-migration exposure pathway, was evaluated in the analysis. The estimated health risk to hypothetical, self-sufficient residents in the 30-km zone is dominated by external and internal irradiation (due primarily to ingestion of agricultural products) from Cs-137, which is present in soils of the 30-km zone in roughly equal proportion with Sr-90. The estimated risk from contaminated groundwater is approximately an order of magnitude lower. Analysis of Sr-90 migration via groundwater to surface water and down-river population centers shows that, despite generally unfavorable environmental conditions in the 30-km exclusion zone, radionuclide transport via the groundwater pathway has potential to contribute only marginally to the off-site radiological risk, which is governed by wash-out of radionuclides from the contaminated river flood plain and catchment areas by surface water during spring snowmelt and rains. Health risks due to off-site radionuclide migration via groundwater are below the level requiring application of counter-measures. This analysis implies that, relative to other exposure pathways, there is little current or future health risk basis for the proposed complex and costly groundwater remediation measures in the 30-km zone. Therefore, these activities should be abandoned in favor of more pressing health issues caused by the Chernobyl accident.