Empirical simulation technique based storm surge frequency analyses

This paper describes theory and application of the empirical simulation technique (EST), a statistical procedure for simulating time series and frequency-of-occurrence relationships for nondeterministic multiparameter systems. Procedures described are applied to a storm surge analysis for tropical events along the coast of Delaware. The approach involves the numerical simulation of historical events, the analysis of the parameters associated with each event, the application of the EST to that data, and the generation of frequency-of-occurrence relationships for 40 locations within the study area. The development of the input data set of descriptive storm parameters and their respective responses require the use of planetary boundary layer and very large domain hydrodynamic modeling techniques. Development of this input database is described herein. Implementation of the EST is based on N repetitions of T-year simulations; therefore, mean-value frequency relationships are computed and assigned confidence limits such that probability of occurrence is defined with error band estimates. Accuracy of the approach is presented and advantages of the technique over the traditional joint probability method are demonstrated.