Is there disparity between risk and incidence of cardiovascular disease after liver transplant?

Background. Hypertension and hypercholesterolemia are recognized complications of liver transplantation, but whether they contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease is uncertain. We aimed first to determine the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) after liver transplantation and second to study the effect of liver transplantation on the predicted 10-year risk of developing CHD and the incidence of cardiovascular events in comparison with a matched local population. Methods. Data on blood pressure, serum lipids, weight, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke were obtained retrospectively from the case notes of 181 consecutive adult liver transplant recipients (median follow-up 54 months). The Framingham coronary risk equations were used to calculate the 10-year probability of developing CHD. Results. The prevalences of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia after transplantation were 77% and 62%, respectively. The predicted 10-year risk of CHD increased from 6.9% before transplantation to 11.5% at 1 year after transplantation, whereas that of a matched local population was 7%. Compared with a matched nontransplant population, the incidence ratios for MI and stroke were 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.01-3.06) and 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 0.18-5.22), respectively. No patients died from MI or stroke. Conclusions. Liver transplant recipients have a high prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease, exceeding that of the general population, and have a higher predicted risk of developing CHD. Despite this, there were no deaths from CHD or stroke during the study period.