The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board

被引：50

作者：

Brayton, F ^{[1
]}

Levin, A ^{[1
]}

Tryon, R ^{[1
]}

Williams, JC ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA

来源：

CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 47, 1997 | 1997年 / 47卷

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/S0167-2231(98)00004-9

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学]; D035 [国家行政管理]; D523 [行政管理]; D63 [国家行政管理];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ; 1204 ; 120401 ;

摘要：

Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used at the Federal Reserve Board for nearly 30 years. After briefly reviewing the first generation of Fed models, which were based on the IS/LM//Phillips curve paradigm, the paper describes the structure and properties of a new set of models. The new models are more explicit in their treatment of expectations formation and household and firm intertemporal decision-making. The incorporation of more rigorous theoretical microfoundations is accomplished while maintaining a high standard of goodness of fit. Simulations illustrate the effects of alternative assumptions about the formation of expectations and policy credibility on system properties.

引用

页码：43 / 81

页数：39