Modelling climate change: the role of unresolved processes

被引:58
作者
Williams, PD [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Global Atmospher Modelling, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
来源
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2005年 / 363卷 / 1837期
关键词
climate change; global warming; meteorology; oceanography; stochastic modelling;
D O I
10.1098/rsta.2005.1676
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Our understanding of the climate system has been revolutionized recently, by the development of sophisticated computer models. The predictions of such models are used to formulate international protocols, intended to mitigate the severity of global warming and its impacts. Yet, these models are not perfect representations of reality, because they remove from explicit consideration many physical processes which are known to be key aspects of the climate system, but which are too small or fast to be modelled. The purpose of this paper is to give a personal perspective of the current state of knowledge regarding the problem of unresolved scales in climate models. A recent novel solution to the problem is discussed, in which it is proposed, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the performance of models may be improved by adding random noise to represent the unresolved processes.
引用
收藏
页码:2931 / 2946
页数:16
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