Meltwater runoff in a changing climate (1951-2099) at Chhota Shigri Glacier, Western Himalaya, Northern India

被引：22

作者：

Engelhardt, Markus ^{[1
]}

Leclercq, Paul ^{[1
]}

Eidhammer, Trude ^{[2
]}

Kumar, Pankaj ^{[3
]}

Landgren, Oskar ^{[4
]}

Rasmussen, Roy ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Oslo, Norway

[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[3] Indian Inst Sci Educ & Res, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Bhopal, India

[4] Norwegian Meteorol Inst Met No, Oslo, Norway

来源：

ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY | 2017年 / 58卷 / 75期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

climate change; glacier discharge; glacier mass balance; MASS-BALANCE; HIMACHAL-PRADESH; ENERGY-BALANCE; TEMPERATURE; MODEL; SENSITIVITY; BASIN; WATER; MELT; RECONSTRUCTION;

D O I：

10.1017/aog.2017.13

中图分类号：

P9 [自然地理学];

学科分类号：

0705 ; 070501 ;

摘要：

Meltwater runoff in the catchment area containing Chhota Shigri glacier (Western Himalaya) is simulated for the period 1951-2099. The applied mass-balance model is forced by down-scaled products from four regional climate models with different horizontal resolution. For the future climate scenarios we use high resolution time series of 5 km grid spacing, generated using the newly developed Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model. The meteorological input is down-scaled to 300 m horizontal resolution. The use of an ice flow model provides annually updated glacier area for the mass-balance calculations. The mass-balance model calculates daily snow accumulation, melt, runoff, as well as the individual runoff components (glacial melt, snowmelt and rain). The resulting glacier area decreases by 35% (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario) to 70% (RCP 8.5 scenario) by 2099 relative to 2000. The average annual mass balance over the whole model period (1951-2099) was -0.4 (+/- 0.3) m w.e. a(-1). Average annual runoff does not differ substantially between the two climate scenarios. However, for the years after 2040 our results show a shift towards earlier snowmelt onset that increases runoff in May and June, and reduced glacier melt that decreases runoff in August and September. This shift is much stronger pronounced in the RCP 8.5 scenario.

引用

页码：47 / 58

页数：12

共 69 条

[1] Processes governing the mass balance of Chhota Shigri Glacier (western Himalaya, India) assessed by point-scale surface energy balance measurements [J].

Azam, M. F. ;

Wagnon, P. ;

Vincent, C. ;

Ramanathan, Al. ;

Favier, V. ;

Mandal, A. ;

Pottakkal, J. G. .

CRYOSPHERE, 2014, 8 (06) :2195-2217

[2] Meteorological conditions, seasonal and annual mass balances of Chhota Shigri Glacier, western Himalaya, India [J].

Azam, Mohd Farooq ;

Ramanathan, Al ;

Wagnon, P. ;

Vincent, C. ;

Linda, A. ;

Berthier, E. ;

Sharma, P. ;

Mandal, A. ;

Angchuk, T. ;

Singh, V. B. ;

Pottakkal, J. G. .

ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY, 2016, 57 (71) :328-338

[3] Reconstruction of the annual mass balance of Chhota Shigri glacier, Western Himalaya, India, since 1969 [J].

Azam, Mohd Farooq ;

Wagnon, Patrick ;

Vincent, Christian ;

Ramanathan, Alagappan ;

Linda, Anurag ;

Singh, Virendra Bahadur .

ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY, 2014, 55 (66) :69-80

[4] From balance to imbalance: a shift in the dynamic behaviour of Chhota Shigri glacier, western Himalaya, India [J].

Azam, Mohd Farooq ;

Wagnon, Patrick ;

Ramanathan, Alagappan ;

Vinicent, Christian ;

Sharma, Parmanand ;

Arnaud, Yves ;

Linda, Anurag ;

Pottakkal, Jose George ;

Chevallier, Pierre ;

Singh, Virendra Bahadur ;

Berthier, Etienne .

JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY, 2012, 58 (208) :315-324

[5] The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers [J].

Bolch, T. ;

Kulkarni, A. ;

Kaab, A. ;

Huggel, C. ;

Paul, F. ;

Cogley, J. G. ;

Frey, H. ;

Kargel, J. S. ;

Fujita, K. ;

Scheel, M. ;

Bajracharya, S. ;

Stoffel, M. .

SCIENCE, 2012, 336 (6079) :310-314

[6] Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget: Spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge [J].

Bookhagen, Bodo ;

Burbank, Douglas W. .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE, 2010, 115

[7]

Budd W., 1979, Journal of Glaciology, V23, P157, DOI [DOI 10.3189/S0022143000029804, 10.3189/S0022143000029804]

[8] Detection of changes in glacial run-off in alpine basins: examples from North America, the Alps, central Asia and the Andes [J].

Casassa, Gino ;

Lopez, Paulina ;

Pouyaud, Bernard ;

Escobar, Fernando .

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2009, 23 (01) :31-41

[9] The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system [J].

Dee, D. P. ;

Uppala, S. M. ;

Simmons, A. J. ;

Berrisford, P. ;

Poli, P. ;

Kobayashi, S. ;

Andrae, U. ;

Balmaseda, M. A. ;

Balsamo, G. ;

Bauer, P. ;

Bechtold, P. ;

Beljaars, A. C. M. ;

van de Berg, L. ;

Bidlot, J. ;

Bormann, N. ;

Delsol, C. ;

Dragani, R. ;

Fuentes, M. ;

Geer, A. J. ;

Haimberger, L. ;

Healy, S. B. ;

Hersbach, H. ;

Holm, E. V. ;

Isaksen, L. ;

Kallberg, P. ;

Koehler, M. ;

Matricardi, M. ;

McNally, A. P. ;

Monge-Sanz, B. M. ;

Morcrette, J. -J. ;

Park, B. -K. ;

Peubey, C. ;

de Rosnay, P. ;

Tavolato, C. ;

Thepaut, J. -N. ;

Vitart, F. .

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2011, 137 (656) :553-597

[10] Wintertime climatic trends in the western Himalayas [J].

Dimri, A. P. ;

Dash, S. K. .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2012, 111 (3-4) :775-800

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 →