Using model/data simulations to detect streakiness

被引:18
作者
Albert, J [1 ]
Williamson, P
机构
[1] Bowling Green State Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Bowling Green, OH 43403 USA
[2] Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Dept Math Sci, Richmond, VA 23284 USA
关键词
Bayesian inference; coin-tossing; hot-hand; Markov switching model; overdispersion; quasi-binomial;
D O I
10.1198/000313001300339923
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
A simulation-based approach is proposed for approximating a Bayesian analysis. Parameters and data are simulated from a Bayesian model and inference about a parameter is performed by exploring the set of simulated parameter values conditional on a set of values of a simulated statistic. The approach is used to learn about parameters of a streaky model on the basis of a statistic used to measure streakiness. The method is illustrated to detect streakiness in baseball hitting data and basketball shooting data.
引用
收藏
页码:41 / 50
页数:10
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