Epidemiological and Viral Genomic Sequence Analysis of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak Reveals Clustered Transmission

被引：45

作者：

Scarpino, Samuel V. ^{[1
]}

Iamarino, Atila ^{[2
,3
]}

Wells, Chad ^{[4
,5
]}

Dan Yamin ^{[4
,5
]}

Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial ^{[4
,5
]}

Wenzel, Natasha S. ^{[4
]}

Fox, Spencer J. ^{[6
]}

Nyenswah, Tolbert ^{[7
]}

Altice, Frederick L. ^{[5
,8
]}

Galvani, Alison P. ^{[4
,5
,9
,10
]}

Meyers, Lauren Ancel ^{[1
,6
]}

Townsend, Jeffrey P. ^{[2
,9
,10
]}

机构：

[1] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM USA

[2] Yale Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, New Haven, CT 06510 USA

[3] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Biomed Sci, Dept Microbiol, BR-05508 Sao Paulo, Brazil

[4] Yale Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Yale Ctr Infect Dis Modeling & Anal, New Haven, CT 06510 USA

[5] Yale Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol Microbial Dis, New Haven, CT 06510 USA

[6] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Integrat Biol, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[7] Minist Hlth & Social Welf, Monrovia, Liberia

[8] Yale Univ, Sch Med, Sect Infect Dis, New Haven, CT 06510 USA

[9] Yale Univ, Program Computat Biol & Bioinformat, New Haven, CT 06510 USA

[10] Yale Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, New Haven, CT 06510 USA

来源：

CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2015年 / 60卷 / 07期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Ebola; West Africa; clustering; genome sequencing; epidemiology; HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER; REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER; RISK-FACTORS; CONGO; KIKWIT; VIRUS;

D O I：

10.1093/cid/ciu1131

中图分类号：

R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];

学科分类号：

100102 ;

摘要：

Using Ebolavirus genomic and epidemiological data, we conducted the first joint analysis in which both data types were used to fit dynamic transmission models for an ongoing outbreak. Our results indicate that transmission is clustered, highlighting a potential bias in medical demand forecasts, and provide the first empirical estimate of underreporting.

引用

页码：1079 / 1082

页数：4

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