Earthquake effects on tourism in central Italy

This paper proposes an approach to economic assessment of the impact on tourist flows of the earthquake that hit the Umbria region in Central Italy on September 26, 1997. Local arrivals in Assisi fell drastically the month following the main shock, compared to the same month of the previous year. The event study methodology, frequently applied in finance, is employed to evaluate the statistical relevance of the shock over time and space. A further and straightforward application of the event study analysis assesses the substantial amount of loss between October 1997 and June 1998 due to the drop of tourism business.