High independent prognostic and predictive value of circulating tumor cells compared with serum tumor markers in a large prospective trial in first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer patients

Background: Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) are a prognostic marker in metastatic breast cancer, but comparisons with serum tumor markers (CA 15-3, carcinoembryonic antigen and lactate dehydrogenase) variations are needed. Patients and methods: CTCs were counted with CellSearch (R) at baseline, before cycle 2 (C2) and cycle 3 or 4 (C3/4) in 267 metastatic breast cancer patients on first-line chemotherapy with/without targeted therapy. Results: Baseline CTC detection rate was 65% with >= 1 CTC/7.5 ml threshold and 44% with 5 CTC/7.5 ml and was independent of subtypes (luminal, triple negative, human epithelial growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)+). CTCs were associated with tumor markers, bone/liver involvement, tumor burden and performance status. CTC detection 1 CTC/7.5 ml was a strong prognostic factor for progression-free survival (PFS), P < 0.0001. Threshold of CTC >= 5 was statistically significant for PFS and overall survival (OS), P = 0.03 on multivariate analysis. Among patients with >= 5 CTC/7.5 ml at baseline, 50% had <5 CTC/7.5 ml at C2. Changes were correlated with both PFS and OS (P < 0.0001). All patients receiving anti-HER2 therapy had < 5 CTC/7.5 ml after three cycles of treatment. Conclusion: This is the largest prospective series validating the prognostic value of CTC independently from serum tumor marker. Elevated CTCs before C2 are an early predictive marker of poor PFS and OS, which could be used to monitor treatment benefit. CTC decrease under treatment seems stronger with targeted therapy.