Models for the extremes of Markov chains

The modelling of extremes of a time series has progressed from the assumption of independent observations to more realistic forms of temporal dependence. In this paper, we focus on Markov chains, deriving a class of models for their joint tail which allows the degree of clustering of extremes to decrease at high levels, overcoming a key Limitation in current methodologies. Theoretical aspects of the model are examined and a simulation algorithm is developed through which the stochastic properties of summaries of the extremal behaviour of the chain are evaluated. The approach is illustrated through a simulation study of extremal events of Gaussian autoregressive processes and an application to temperature data.