Tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: A regional assessment of the impact of the human immunodeficiency virus and National Tuberculosis Control Program quality

Background: The effect of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic on tuberculosis (TB) has been evaluated for certain countries in sub-Saharan Africa. However, no multi-country comparisons have been performed of the magnitude of the changes in TB case rates and the roles of the HIV epidemic and national TB control program (NTP) quality in these changes. Methods: We examined trends in TB case rates after 1985 for 20 sub-Saharan African countries, and also from 1975-1984 for 10 of these countries (core countries). Average annual changes in TB case rates after 1985 were stratified by 1992 urban low-risk HN seroprevalence and by NTP quality, as determined by a survey of international TB experts. Results: Case rates in the core countries decreased by an average of -1.6% per year prier to 1985, but increased by an average of +7.0% per year after 1985 (+7.7% per year after 1985 in all 20 countries). Average annual case rates after 1985 increased approximately twice as fast in countries with high vs low or intermediate HIV seroprevalence ratings. In both the core countries and all 20 countries, the average annual rate of rise in case rates after 1985 decreased as NTP quality rating increased. This relationship persisted even after stratification by HN seroprevalence rating. Conclusions: TB case rates have increased in sub-Saharan Africa since 1985. These increases were relatively greater as HIV seroprevalence increased, and relatively lower as NTP quality increased. Improving NTP quality is essential to mitigate the resurgence of TB in the HIV era.