Modeling analyses of the effects of changes in nitrogen oxides emissions from the electric power sector on ozone levels in the eastern United States

In this paper, we examine the changes in ambient ozone concentrations simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for summer 2002 under three different nitrogen oxides (NO.) emission scenarios. Two emission scenarios represent best estimates of 2002 and 2004 emissions; they allow assessment of the impact of the NO, emissions reductions imposed on the utility sector by the NO, State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call. The third scenario represents a hypothetical rendering of what NO, emissions would have been in 2002 if no emission controls had been imposed on the utility sector. Examination of the modeled median and 95th percentile daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations reveals that median ozone levels estimated for the 2004 emission scenario were less than those modeled for 2002 in the region most affected by the NOx SIP Call. Comparison of the "no-control" with the "2002" scenario revealed that ozone concentrations would have been much higher in much of the eastern United States if the utility sector had not implemented NO, emission controls; exceptions occurred in the immediate vicinity of major point sources where increased NO titration tends to lower ozone levels.